Thursday, December 18, 2014

CMG'14: "A New (?) Approach to Capacity Forecasting" vs. IT Control Charts

I have enjoyed as usual the CMG'14 International conference and found a few papers there still related to this particular blog subject.

One of them is " A New Approach to Capacity Forecasting by  Linda Carroll (IBM, USA)

Traditionally, a capacity forecast is presented at the month view of the data and has the tendency to represent capacity trends in a straight predictable line. This paper will show the value of measuring and reporting system capacity based on a weekly view. It also introduces the use of Process Control Analysis to confirm the forecasting methodology and the accuracy of the capacity forecast. What differentiates this methodology is that it is currently being used in real world operations where it has been very successful.

This paper I am afraid is attempt to "re-invent the wheel" as SPC and MASF variation of that has found the way to be used in Capacity planning for years and  specifically my CMG papers have detailed explanation how to do it by using Control charts and especially weekly ones (IT-Control Charts).  Bellow video has some example of short term forecasting that IT-Control chart can do:
 

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I started my career in 1979 as an IBM/370 system engineer. In 1986 I got my PhD. in Robotics at St. Petersburg Technical University (Russia) and then worked as a professor teaching there CAD/CAM, Robotics and Computer Science for about 12 years. I published 30 papers and made several presentations for international conferences related to the Robotics, Artificial Intelligent and Computer fields. In 1999 I moved to the US and worked at Capital One bank in Richmond as a Capacity Planner. My first CMG paper was written and presented in 2001. The next one, "Global and Application Level Exception Detection System Based on MASF Technique," won a Best Paper award at CMG 2002 and was presented again at UKCMG 2003 in Oxford, England. My CMG 2004 paper about applying MASF technique to mainframe performance data was republished in the IBM z/Series Expo. I also presented my papers in Central Europe CMG conference and in numerous US regional meetings. I continue to enhance my exception detection methodologies. After working more than 2 years as the Capacity Management team lead for IBM, I had worked for SunTrust Bank for 3 years and then got back to IBM holding for 2+ years  Sr. IT Architect position. Currently I work for Capital One bank as IT Manager for IT Capacity Management group. In 2015 I have been elected to the CMG (http://www.cmg.org) board of directors,

The views expressed here are my own and do not necessarily reflect the views of my employer.